I feel like part of my soul will forever be left at 8:00pm on Saturday night, November 2, when the famous DMR Selzer poll found Vice President Harris up by 3 on Trump. While I didn’t actually expect Vice President Harris to win Iowa, I certainly expected a closer result in the state. Ann Selzer doesn’t miss, after all. And a close result in Iowa would portend a good election night.
But it wasn’t a good election night. But strangely enough, it also wasn’t terrible when you step back. Despite a Trump win and a close loss in the Senate, Democrats have meanwhile:
- Had a huge midterm in 2018.
- More trifectas than they had in 2019, after that big midterm.
- More statewide legislative majorities than they did in 2019.
- Unseated a sitting Republican President in 2020 after one term, with the third highest Dem percentage for President since FDR.
- The best in power mid term performance since 1934.
- Democratic Senators outperformed Harris, and went on to win many states in 2024 that Harris lost.
- The House is 220-215, with three of those Republican seats up in 2025 alone.
- Democratic and progressive ballot initiatives performed exceptionally around the country in 2024, including in many deep red areas.
Yes, the repercussions of this election are huge. And we are all still struggling to find the reasons why the unthinkable happened. I’m simply asserting that the outcome, when viewed together with the past few years, has been mixed for Democrats… at worst.
In the face of that mixed outcome, though, Democrats (and the establishment institutions we fund) are reliving the worst advanced obeying since the Iraq War runup period.
- You have Jim Clyburn saying Biden should pardon Trump.
- John Fetterman, who I’m sorry, I’ve always been suspicious of, and always considered the next likeliest Democrat to pull a Kristen Sinema, joining Truth Social and calling for a pardon of Trump.
- Speaking of whom, outgoing Kristen Sinema, who checked out of the Senate weeks ago to spend more time at her vineyard, showed up just to screw over Democrats and hand Trump a giant gift on the NLRB. For no reason.
- Joe Scarborough and Mika go down to Mar-a-Largo to kiss up to Trump.
- The New York Times drive out their most popular columnist because he is too anti-Trump.
- ABC News settled a $15 million defamation suit out of fear.
- Bezos and Zuckerberg donate $1 million to the Trump inaugural fund.
- DNC Member Lindy Li kissing up to MAGA, praising Pete Hegseth, and trashing Democrats (see diary here).
- Ongoing normalization of Trump’s transgressions, and underreporting of Trump’s lies and backpedaling.
And the list goes on.
In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, George W. Bush had an unimaginable approval rating of 90%(!) Bush capitalized on the attacks to rout Democrats in the 2002 Midterms and thwart any return to equilibrium. It was tempting to think, between the fear of terrorism, support for George W. Bush, and Democrats under performance the years before the Iraq War, that America really was a center right Nation, as Karl Rove exclaimed. Under those circumstances, obeying in advance could be rationalized politically.
But now?
Donald Trump has never been popular. Donald Trump ran for President three times, was 2-1, and never broke 50%. And most importantly, Democrats have won almost every election since 2016 when Trump has not been on the ballot. Even in Alabama.
We’re in a bad situation, and I’m not sure America is going to make it. I said so myself after the election. But I also don’t see any evidence to justify such a level of Democratic obeying in advance. There are things we can do.
- Threaten any MAGA sympathizers in the party with a primary challenge, especially older ones. Democrats have been remarkably successful with ousting problematic politicians in the modern age. Better yet, line up that primary challenger now. Sympathizers may change their tune.
- Starve the establishment media. Their business decision to pander to Trump is predicated on the belief that liberals will support them regardless. Change their calculus. Cancel your subscriptions, turn off their broadcasts, and don’t click on their sites until they take at worst a neutral stance.
These are just two things we can do. Now.